Change in the Weather Coming in Two Storms
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Weather Summary and Forecast Details
by, Greg Roberts, RogueWeather.com
The prolonged period of almost spring like weather is going to come to end today. On the really bright side we are also going to be saying good bye to the fog in the mornings west of the Cascades. And if all of that is going away at this time of the year.....you KNOW what is coming next! We will see a return to stormy weather with rain and snow coming in.
There are going to be two significant storms.
The first one is going to go into California. We are going to be right on the northern edge of it. We still will see a significant amount of rain out of this across the area. The rain will mainly be a Friday into Saturday event. There will be some snow impact for our area. But, it is limited. Snow levels will be mainly 5500 - 6500 feet, except snow levels near 5000 feet in North Central and South Eastern Siskiyou County. There is now a Winter Storm Warning for those areas from 1 pm Friday afternoon through 4 pm Saturday afternoon. 12 - 18 inches of snow is expected. This will impact the higher terrain of Highway 97 between Weed and the Oregon state line, and the Mt. Shasta area. No, there are no impacts from snow expected for I 5 near Mt. Shasta. But, California State Highway 89 is expected to see impacts at the Snowman Summit and the Dead Horse Summit north of Highway 299. Mt. Shasta Ski Park will also be in the Winter Storm Warning.
A weather system is expected to bring snow to the mountains and elevations above 5500 feet on Friday. Snow levels will gradually lower to about 4000 feet in Siskiyou county Saturday. Snow levels will lower even further across the region on Sunday. This is period when Siskiyou summit will see snow accumulation. Sunday night into Monday is when we’re expecting snow levels to fall down to the valley floor as a cold front moves through. Stay tuned to the forecast for more information on valley floor snow accumulation. (National Weather Service)
There is going to be some winds associated with this storm. The winds will be strongest in the Shasta Valley, especially from Gazelle to Weed, and for Klamath, lake, and Modoc Counties. Wind advisories go into effect overnight tonight and then will last into Saturday. Look for sustained southerly winds at 25 - 35 miles an hour with gusts to 50 miles an hour. The steady state rain and snow will move through our area on Saturday and then we will see showers over the entire area. How much results from these showers will be the big question. We could see some decent amounts of both rain and snow if we start convection enhancement in the showers. The showers last in Sunday.....and then the second significant storm hits.
After an extended dry period, we’ll see rain enter the forecast on Friday. We’re not expecting a huge amount of rain with this system. The totals may look rather large on the picture above, but keep in mind this is occurring over 96 hours. Therefore, we are not expecting any flooding. Regardless, take your time traveling and slow down as conditions deteriorate. (National Weather Service)
It is this storm that is already getting attention. The big reason is the storm is coming from the north with very cold air. Typically these kinds of systems do not produce much in the way of either rain or snow. But, this storm is going to have much more moisture associated with it than we typically see when a storm approaches us from a more northerly direction. This will be both due to atmospheric moisture feeding in to the storm, and also the center of the storm will track down the coast and is expected to remain out over the ocean as it does. And this will help it draw even more moisture into play. We know that there is going to be a big snowfall for the mountains above 2000 feet for Sunday night through Monday. That is not even a question. The BIG question is what will happen when the coldest air arrives? How much moisture is there going to be? Right now we do not have much that gives a high degree of confidence in anything. We know it is going to be unseasonally cold. We know snow levels will drop to the 500 - 1000 foot level.
So today I ran the data to see what I was getting. Basically it showed a trace to an inch over the whole of Southwestern Oregon. I did look to see if we got any convective enhancement and then used terrain enhancement to see what might happen. The most noticeable bumps happen above 1000 feet. We could be seeing up to 3 inches basically from 1000 to 1500 feet. That's Medford down in town elevation point. Getting above 1500 feet to 2000 feet I was getting 6 inch potential. This was mostly for the Ashland Talent area, but the East Hills of Medford also showed this potential. So, this tells me that if we get more moisture arriving and we get some deeper convection happening that give us burst of heavier precipitation and then combine it with terrain helping to wring the moisture out, then yes, we could have a much more significant snow situation. BUT!! Right now this is all far from certain. This is a time where we are going to need another 24 hours to have a better feel for what WILL happen with higher confidence. But again, elevations above 2000 feet will see a very significant snowfall coming in from Sunday night through Monday. It is looking to be around a foot or even more for elevations abovwe 5000 feet. And this snow is going to be real light fluffy powder snow. Skiers, snowboarders, and snowmobilers are going to love this. I suspect there will be a lot of winter snow sports enthusiasts using sick days on Monday.
For travelers on the roads there is NO good news for you. EVERY pass into and out of Southern Oregon and Northern California is going to see snow and ice impacts. Count on it. That includes the four passes north of Grants Pass on I 5, and Highway 199 out to the coast. I am expecting that we could see chain requirements for all vehicles popping up on the highways on Monday. It is going to be a day with high demand on plows and sanders to stay up with conditions. That is going to be a very tough chore for them. Once we get beyond Monday evening we see showers arriving. Expect showers to persist through Tuesday and then we should see a break. I say should because right now that is solution that has the most support in the various models. There is quite a bit of spread in secondary models. And that includes the potential for another systerm to arrive Wednesday night. But, this is a big outlier at this point. That said, the forecast of a break of several days is not really a high confidence outcome either.
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